Click a benchmark in the legend to show or hide its line. The benchmark selected above is the one used in the statistics and comparisons.
Backtest: hypothetical results, not a live record. Trading cost: 5 bp per side (OXrun standard). Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Key statisticsMay 2022 – Oct 2026
Tech Growth Mix
SPY
Total return
+194.0%
+95.8%
+27.4%
+16.3%
24.6%
16.8%
1.11
0.98
1.60
1.36
−23.8%
−18.8%
1.15
0.87
67%
65%
Drawdown
Drawdown from previous peak
Monthly returns
About this strategy
Holds five exchange-traded funds in fixed proportions, long-only and fully invested with no leverage: a technology fund, a semiconductor fund, a gold fund and two managed futures funds. Positions are reset to the fixed mix once a year, on the first trading day of the year. No signals are published and the strategy is not offered for subscription.
How likely the past record is to repeat. The scoring method is published in How it works.
Robustness score
How the score is built
15of 30
Statistical evidenceIs the edge real, or could it be luck?
25of 25
Overfitting riskWas it tuned to fit the past?
20of 20
Consistency over timeIs it still working recently?
10of 10
ImplementabilityDoes it survive real-world trading?
0of 15
Live evidenceDoes live trading confirm it?
What is measured
Statistical evidence
Chance the edge is real100
Return beyond the benchmark44
Enough trades to judge5
Overfitting risk
Holds up on data it was not tuned on100
Survives small rule changesAuthor-reported100
Consistency over time
Recent performance matches the long run100
Implementability
Survives higher trading costs100
Survives a one-day delayAuthor-reported100
Live evidence
Months of live record (36 = full)0
Live results match the backtest0
A ring fills to the check’s 0–100 score; the points are that score times its weight. “Author-reported” items come from the author and are not verified by OXrun.
The score above always uses SPY. This changes the comparison tests below.
1
Luck or skill
Sample size, fat tails and streaks can all make a lucky strategy look skilled. We test for that directly.
chance the true beats SPY’s ()
Range of 5-year outcomes,
Annualised return over random 5-year stretches stitched together from the strategy’s own daily history in 1-month blocks. It shows the spread of outcomes the record supports, not a forecast.
2
Performance across market conditions
How it did in the months when SPY did worst, and whether its risk-adjusted return held up over time.
Average monthly return, by how SPY did that month
Rolling 3-year Sharpe ratio
The rolling line shows the risk-adjusted return of every 3-year window since 2022. A robust strategy stays above zero in all of them.
3
Length of history
4 years of history.
Return by calendar year
Same rules, 2 periods
Trading statistics
Computed by OXrun from the strategy’s trade log.
Tech Growth Mix
Trades per year
1.12
Annual turnover
Times the portfolio is replaced per year
0.15
Average invested
Share of the portfolio not in cash, on average
100.0%
Universe
Ticker
Name
Average weight
Months held
VGT
Vanguard Information Technology ETF
54%
100%
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
30%
100%
GLDM
SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust
10%
100%
DBMF
iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF
5%
100%
CTA
Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF
2%
100%
Allocation over time
View as table
The record starts on the first trading day on or after 1 May 2022.