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Tech Growth Mix

A fixed mix of technology, semiconductor, gold and managed futures funds. It does not use any market signal.

CAGR since May 2022
27.4%
+11.1 pts vs SPY
Sharpe ratio
1.11
SPY 0.98
Max drawdown
−23.8%
SPY −18.8%
Robustness score
70 / 100

Performance

Growth of $10,000 Backtest

Click a benchmark in the legend to show or hide its line. The benchmark selected above is the one used in the statistics and comparisons.

Backtest: hypothetical results, not a live record. Trading cost: 5 bp per side (OXrun standard). Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Key statisticsMay 2022 – Oct 2026
Tech Growth MixSPY
Total return+194.0%+95.8%
+27.4%+16.3%
24.6%16.8%
1.110.98
1.601.36
−23.8%−18.8%
1.150.87
67%65%

Drawdown

Drawdown from previous peak

Monthly returns

About this strategy

Holds five exchange-traded funds in fixed proportions, long-only and fully invested with no leverage: a technology fund, a semiconductor fund, a gold fund and two managed futures funds. Positions are reset to the fixed mix once a year, on the first trading day of the year. No signals are published and the strategy is not offered for subscription.

Universe
5 instruments See the list
Style
Long-only, no leverage, fully invested
Trading frequency
Annual rebalance
Track record
From May 2022

Robustness

How likely the past record is to repeat. The scoring method is published in How it works.

70out of 100

Robustness score

How the score is built

  1. 15of 30
    Statistical evidenceIs the edge real, or could it be luck?
  2. 25of 25
    Overfitting riskWas it tuned to fit the past?
  3. 20of 20
    Consistency over timeIs it still working recently?
  4. 10of 10
    ImplementabilityDoes it survive real-world trading?
  5. 0of 15
    Live evidenceDoes live trading confirm it?
What is measured

Statistical evidence

  • Chance the edge is real100
  • Return beyond the benchmark44
  • Enough trades to judge5

Overfitting risk

  • Holds up on data it was not tuned on100
  • Survives small rule changesAuthor-reported100

Consistency over time

  • Recent performance matches the long run100

Implementability

  • Survives higher trading costs100
  • Survives a one-day delayAuthor-reported100

Live evidence

  • Months of live record (36 = full)0
  • Live results match the backtest0

A ring fills to the check’s 0–100 score; the points are that score times its weight. “Author-reported” items come from the author and are not verified by OXrun.

The score above always uses SPY. This changes the comparison tests below.
1

Luck or skill

Sample size, fat tails and streaks can all make a lucky strategy look skilled. We test for that directly.

chance the true beats SPY’s ()

Range of 5-year outcomes,

Annualised return over random 5-year stretches stitched together from the strategy’s own daily history in 1-month blocks. It shows the spread of outcomes the record supports, not a forecast.

2

Performance across market conditions

How it did in the months when SPY did worst, and whether its risk-adjusted return held up over time.

Average monthly return, by how SPY did that month

Rolling 3-year Sharpe ratio

The rolling line shows the risk-adjusted return of every 3-year window since 2022. A robust strategy stays above zero in all of them.

3

Length of history

4 years of history.

Return by calendar year

Same rules, 2 periods

Trading statistics

Computed by OXrun from the strategy’s trade log.

Tech Growth Mix
Trades per year1.12
Annual turnover
Times the portfolio is replaced per year
0.15
Average invested
Share of the portfolio not in cash, on average
100.0%

Universe

TickerNameAverage weightMonths held
VGTVanguard Information Technology ETF54%100%
SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF30%100%
GLDMSPDR Gold MiniShares Trust10%100%
DBMFiMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF5%100%
CTASimplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF2%100%

Allocation over time

View as table

The record starts on the first trading day on or after 1 May 2022.

Tech Growth Mix

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